Categories
Real Estate

Condotels

I came across the idea of “Condotels” (also know as hotel-condos or Condo Hotels) a couple of years ago when a man was advertising them on craigslist Toronto. More recently a real estate club that I’m on their mailing list sent out a solicitation for people to invest in a Muskoka condo hotel and I thought it might be an interesting topic for those who haven’t heard of them.

Certainly distinct from timeshares, the idea behind condotels is that a group of investors each buy one or more rooms in a hotel under development (much as how pre-construction condos are sold). A corporation operates the hotel, and will maintain the facilities and your unit in it. You have the choice of staying in your room when you want (say it’s in a city you regularly visit) and having the hotel rent it out when you’re not there. Rooms are rented out in rotation, so owners should do well or poorly based on how the hotels does as a whole. From the guests’ perspective they can’t even tell that it’s different from a traditional hotel.

Two years ago when I was talking to the gentleman trying to sell them on craigslist he was singing their praises. After talking to him and being assured it was a spectacular way to make a lot of money (a good way to get rid of Mr. Cheap is to offer him a free lunch) I didn’t bother going on the site visit and forgot about it. A similar “very positive” overview of the concept can be read at this interview with Joel Green (who runs a brokerage specializing in condo hotels).

The obvious counter-argument is that if there was a ton of easy money to be made, someone with deep pockets would just build the hotel themselves (or buy all the units). Clearly the fact that a sales staff is needed to market and advertise the units tells us this isn’t the risk free way to easy money they try to imply it is.

The potential pitfalls in this concept is that you share quite a bit of the revenue with the hotel corporation (at some sites it’s 50%) and you’re required to pay very large Homeowner’s association fees to maintain the hotel and your room in peak condition (it’s a hotel, so they can’t let it get as shabby as many condos get).

Forbes published “A Room Of Your Own” which considers condotels good second homes but bad investments. In it they point out that the numbers needed to evaluate them as investments aren’t provided, and that a miscalculation (like occupancy rate) can dramatically adjust your return. They also point out a glut of resales that could saturate the market (and this was in 2006, I shudder to think what the situation is like today) and do the math showing it’s a better way to lose money than make it after all fees are totaled.

The Wall Street Journal answers a letter providing “Tips on Buying a Condotel As a Rental Residence” which also quotes Mr. Green and provides some suggestions on how to evaluate the potential of an pre-construction condotel.

Although the Wall Street Journal cites Florida as one of the markets where condotels have performed well, the South Florida Business Journal offers an article titled Condo-hotels seen as poor investments. They depressingly quote a National Association of Condo Hotel Owners (NACHO) report that says “We maintain that owning a condo-hotel unit will most likely require injection of capital periodically”. If the national association is saying that they’ll cost you money instead of making you money, I’m not sure if it would be wise to view them as an investment: consider it a consumer purchase if you still want one.

None of these articles provide well grounded information about the resale value of condo hotels, so it’s POSSIBLE that there’s money to be made by running them at a loss then making money on the appreciation (hmm, why does that sound like a familiar strategy?). I wouldn’t be comfortable betting on this personally.

Have you every bought or considered purchasing a condotel?  Have you ever been to a sales presentation for one?  What did you think?

Categories
Personal Finance

Gurus

I’ve written before on my opinion of experts.  I definitely think there are times when we need to seek out someone who knows more than us about a subject, but that certain professions cultivate this to a degree that’s detrimental to their clients.  Beyond this, there are people who go even further and try to set themselves up as the guru on the mountain.

Gurus are particularly attracted to real estate, but you come across them in a number of areas.  As well as writing up reviews of particular gurus, John T. Reed also provides general bullshit warning signs (most of which are applicable to gurus in any area).

I come across the occasional blog or website where the author is clearly trying to lay the groundwork to set themselves up as a guru.  Sometime they provide tidbits of worthwhile information, but there seem to be a few glaring warning signs that I think should warn people off.

One of Reed’s points that has shown up in the early information in scams I’ve looked into is #44: Saying they only do it for the love of teaching and sharing their secrets.  It’s amazing to me that people will describe how passionate they are about teaching others then charge a ridiculous premium for what they’re selling.  Books, called courses, will sell for hundreds of dollars.  Courses, called boot camps, will sell for thousands.  Expensive monthly memberships provide a wonderful “passive income” FOR THE GURU.

If someone’s actions are so contradictory to their claims, it’s time to move carefully towards the door.  Why would you trust the information being provided by someone is proving themselves to be dishonest with you from the start?

I was reminded recently of #1: Emphasis on luxurious lifestyle when I was on a woman’s site where she was selling her guru services.  Her site talked about how wonderful it was to be rolling in dough, and showed pictures from around the world of her and her kids and their luxurious vacations.  When I looked her up on Rip-Off Reports there was a litany of complaints about her (claiming she was charming and helpful until she got your check or credit card number).  Digging further she has a criminal record of repeatedly defrauding friends and family.

Anyone can say they’re a millionaire.  Anyone can post pictures of themselves next to fancy cars or in front of a mansion.  I’ve never signed up with any guru (I see enough warning signs that scare me off well before I give them any money), but I imagine it gets harder to as you get deeper in with them.  You have to realize you’ve made a mistake giving them cash, which makes it harder to see the ever more obvious warning signs.

Categories
Business Ideas

Wacky Business Idea #16: Patrons.com

I recently watched the new “Dead Like Me” movie (it’s awful, I’m not sure if the people who wrote it ever saw the TV series).  On the Pirate Bay a commenter (derrrface) wrote asking everyone to buy the direct-to-DVD movie to encourage Showcase to resume the series.  Other commenters weren’t very supportive about his suggestion, but it reminded me of a business idea I had some time back.

In the past artists, musicians and writers were often support by patrons.  These were rich people who believed in the artist’s work and would provide financial support so they could focus on it.  For example, Emperor Joseph II was Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s patron.

Nowadays (perhaps starting with the cancellation of Star Trek: the Original Series) there are mega-fans who passionately believe in the artistic work of an individual or group and mobilize to put pressure on the studios to continue creating content with them.  I recently watched (it’s amazing I get any work done on my PhD, eh?) “Done the Impossible” which details the lengths Firefly fans went to to try to keep Joss Whedon’s series on the air.  Some believe they helped make the Serenity movie possible.

The core of this idea is a site which brings together “micro patrons” with artists to allow them the freedom to work outside the studio / publishing / art world and interact directly with those who want to consume their artistic vision.  Say a bunch of people enjoyed a book released directly by the author (The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect perhaps – if you start to read it, DON’T STOP after the first chapter, its not representative of the books as a whole).  Instead of them having to go buy 10 copies of it to show their support (and only having a fraction of that purchase go through to the creator) they could get the money directly to the creator to encourage them to keep working.

Either a group of fans could create a project asking the artist to work on what they’re asking, or the artist could offer to work on something if a threshold of donations was reached.  Perhaps an author would say that he could write a book if he had $15,000 to be able to quit his day job and focus on it for the next 5 months, or fans might band together and offer Stephen King $40,000 if he’d write a book about mutant gerbils.

It wouldn’t be any sort of legal contract, and the patrons wouldn’t have any ownership of the idea or final project.  It would just be a way of people who love an artist”s work to say “I want you to keep working, if there’s a way money could help make that happen, here it is”.  That being said, there WOULD be an expectation that the artist WILL work on the project if they accept the funds (and the fund could be tagged as a bounty once the work is completed if the fans are afraid King will take the money then write about hamsters).

The site would function by putting the funds held in a very safe, stable investment (a money market account, high yielding savings account or cashable GICs) and using any interest generated to operate the site.  If an artist rejected a proposal, the funds would be immediately returned to the micro-patrons.

Categories
Opinion

Mr. Cheap Asks: What Kind of Dog Should I Get My Dad?

If you haven’t already entered, definitely check out the Four Pillar’s Great Canadian Book Giveaway.  It’s possible to get two entries, so if any of the books look interesting, get your name in!  Contest runs until Saturday, Feb 7 at 8:00pm EST.

My father generally doesn’t like change in his life.  We joke that if something ever happened to my mother he’d look around for a woman just like her and stay single if he couldn’t find her (ideally he should have married a woman with an identical twin so he’d have a backup). He doesn’t travel at all, because he likes his daily routine to stay as constant as possible.  Growing up, he had a series of dogs, and each of them was named “Buddy” (as soon as one dog died, it was replaced with another and given the same name).

Shortly after he retired we got him a dog, and at first he was really angry (he said at one point that the dog ruined his retirement), but before long they were best buddies and the dog went everywhere with him.  For months after the dog passed away people he’d never talked to before would come up and ask him where his dog was (people had got used to seeing them together).  He said a few times over the years that if anything ever happened to the dog he’d want another, as she added so much enjoyment to his life.  My father has had difficulty making change happen and still doesn’t have a dog in his life (it’s been years now).  After talking to the rest of the family, I’ve decided to get him a new dog in the spring and was hoping some of our readership is knowledgeable about dogs and can give me some advice.

His previous dog was an English Springer Spaniel which was pretty close to ideal for our family.  A dog trainer I was talking to made the point that when you get a new dog, you don’t want it to be the same breed as the last one (so that you won’t view it as a clone of the previous dog and will realize it’s a new dog with its own personality).  This made a lot of sense to me, so I’m now trying to find a breed similar to the English Springer Spaniel, but different.

Things we liked about the breed:

  • Friendly breed that’s good with strangers (we don’t need a guard dog), if it was barking a lot that’d be a problem.
  • Very sensitive – this is an important characteristic which was explained to me as how much the dog will “read” its owner.  Dogs that are more sensitive can tell when the owner is upset, whereas less sensitive dogs need to be disciplined more blatantly.  My dad definitely needs a dog that can read him when he’s getting upset (and stop doing whatever its doing), as my dad isn’t the best at formal discipline.
  • Reasonably athletic – my dad took the dog for at least one long walk every day and would often take the dog cross-country skiing with him.
  • It probably doesn’t make much of a difference, but we’ll get a female (I’ve read in some breeds the males and females can have different behaviours).

Things we were indifferent to:

  • English Springer Spaniels are apparently “one master” dogs and tend to bond with one person.  My mom would like a dog that was more of a “multiple owner” dog, but I think my dad likes the one-on-one dogs.
  • Especially in their old ages, English Spring Spaniels tend to want their own way with things (and can get grumpy).  My parents were fairly accommodating with their old dog (although this used to irritate me a bit).
  • Our previous dog was supposedly “pure bred” without papers.  We like the breed just in terms of knowing what the dog’s general characteristics should be, but we couldn’t care less about the pedigree beyond that.

Things we didn’t like:

  • My dad has found the house a lot easier to clean without dog hair everywhere.  A breed that shed less than English Springer Spaniels would be good.

If anyone can suggest breeds that have the important characteristics for us, I’d really appreciate it!  I’ve had suggestions to look into a Brittany and a Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retriever.  I’ve also considered getting a English Springer Spaniel with different coloration (the previous dog had liver colouring, but I’m not sure if getting one with black colouring would be enough of a difference to prevent comparisons).

I suspect the suggestion will be made to rescue a dog from the pound.  I’m certainly sympathetic to why that would be a good idea (there are dogs that certainly need a home).  Ultimately, my view is that dogs are a pack animal and abandonment is VERY traumatic for them.  My parents aren’t well equipped to rehabilitate an animal recovering from this trauma (and I suspect the process of adjusting to each other would prevent bonding:  my parents would probably take the view that it’s a “bad dog”).

Given the criteria outlined above, do you have any suggestions on breeds I should consider or general advice about the process of getting a new pet?

Categories
Personal Finance

Mint.com Website Review

I’ve been using Mint for about 3 months now.  For those who haven’t used it, it’s basically a website that consolidates all your accounts at other financial websites into one.  You can see your mortgage, investment portfolio, credit cards and checking account all at a glance.

Read the Mint.com Canadian review

The Good

  • I’m a huge fan of measurement, and its role in enacting change in our lives.  Its really great that they’re able to show you all the info in one place, derive trends from it automatically, and prevent us from fooling ourselves (by “not counting” that one credit card that keeps growing or the stock account that’s dropped recently)
  • I liked that it tries its best to organize spending, but then you can override it and mark things as the appropriate category (such as “Income”, “Food and Dining’ or “Investment”)
  • The set-up is pretty impressive.  Given the variety of banks in the US, for them to have screen-scrappers set up for each (which is how I assume they get the info) as well as login sequences is something that I’d guess would have been a big pain to create and maintain.  It works well though.  My only problem setting things up was I forgot which “secret questions” I’d used at various sites, so I had to redo them all (so I’d know which to use at Mint).
  • They have notifications for worrisome situations  (an unpaid credit card, a checking account that’s low on funds, etc.) which are very handy, and make you wonder why the financial institutes themselves aren’t doing a better job offering similar services.

The Bad

  • A data breach for Mint would be disastrous.  I was nervous about trusting them with my financial info when they first debuted, but after months went by and no one reported any problems, I figured that I wasn’t in danger from the Mint crew themselves.  If their security ever fails them and their customers’ info falls into the wrong hands, its going to be very bad for both the company and their customers.  This is the exact info bad guys would love to get their hands on (all in one place).
  • While I get that it’s probably the revenue portion of their business plan, I found their “Ways To Save” section kinda lame.  Basically they show sponsored offers that will “save you money” (although the suggestions for me are all worse deals than what I already have.  It’s easy enough to ignore this section though.

Conclusion

Mint.com is a very convenient way to track your finances.  It’s an online service that will download your financial data automatically, which is the main difference between Mint and other financial software.

If you are looking for a different budgeting program, check out You Need A Budget Review.

Categories
Investing

Incentive


It’s not terribly enlightening to assert that the threat of punishment or the promise of reward goes a long way to explaining people’s actions.  Similarly, it’s probably a pretty simplistic view of negotiation to say that it is understanding their perspective, then structuring incentives for other person to do what you want.  I’m not a very strong negotiator, but this forms the core (and almost the whole) of how I try to reach agreements with people:  I try to see the deal from their perspective, then suggest the deal be structured in a way that appeals to BOTH our self-interests.  The silly example from win-win deals of two women fighting over an orange can be viewed as an example of this.  They both had an incentive to possess the orange, but ultimately had rewards that were independent of each other (one to use the rind, the other to use the fruit).  The negotiation can be resolved by structuring the deal in terms that align with the incentive of the other party, i.e. “I only want the rind to bake with, if I give you all the meat to make juice, can I have the whole rind?”

What’s shocking is how often people ignore the incentive of the opposite party when negotiating (then can’t understand when the deal falls through).  Contractors who start a job then disappear for weeks or months on end are an example of this.  The home owner who wanted the work done clearly gave the contractor too much money up front (such that its not worth doing the job to get the balance).  The threat of a lawsuit to get their money back isn’t enough of a threat to get prompt work from the contractor.  Home-owners will gripe and moan about unethical, disreputable contractors, but ultimately I think the home-owner himself screwed up when he structured the deal.  When I had work done on my condo, I paid the painter after the work was done (through Sears) and I paid for the materials for the flooring then the labour once the work was done.  For everyone involved, our interests were aligned in getting the job done as soon as possible (for me to get tenants into the unit and for them to get paid).

I’ve seen people begging in negotiations where they’ll be telling some hard luck story why the person should give them a deal.  Maybe this works sometimes, but I can’t imagine it’s very effective.  Who cares why the person needs a good deal?  (remember, I am pretty hard hearted, so maybe this works on other people, just not on Mr. Cheap).  I saw people trying this in developing countries (“I love this knick knack but I don’t have enough money to pay for it and go on the swim with the dolphins trip.  Would you please, please, please accept less?”), and the vendors had no problem shaking their heads saying “no, sorry, full price”.  My technique was to offer what I was willing to pay, and when they said no I replied “thanks anyway, have a good day” and started to walk away.  Potentially losing the sale was a very good incentive for them to quickly reach an acceptable price.  Of course, I had to actually be prepared to leave, if I’d come back 10 minutes later, you can be sure I’d be paying full price.

One time when I was doing contract programming a gentleman was delighted that I could do the work he needed done, and told me he’d been looking for someone for months without any luck (I was shocked that anyone in business would put themselves into such a weak bargaining position).  I offered a fair price, based on my foolish perspective on pricing to which he responded with a series of e-mails commenting on “he’d find the money SOMEHOW” and “I can pay you instead of feeding my kids for a couple of weeks”.  I guess this was suppose to make me feel sorry for him and drop my price, but instead I got annoyed and worried that he wouldn’t pay his bill after I did the work (and I dropped him instead of taking the job).

Offering potential follow-up work, paying promptly, and being pleasant to work with are all excellent incentives to make a contractor give your work higher priority than other things on his plate.

One landlord I rented from showed me a place mid month and I said I’d take it from the 1st of the month.  After he asked me if I wanted to move in immediately (and I told him I didn’t as I had a place I was living) he said it was mine on the first, unless someone came by to take it sooner.  This clearly would be a great situation from his perspective.  He has an incentive to start collecting rent as soon as possible, so having a guaranteed tenant to start on the first, and the option to take someone sooner, is an ideal situation.  From my perspective, I had an incentive to line up an accommodation for the next month, and I wasn’t particularly keen to have to start looking for a place a couple days before the end of the month when he let me know that someone had taken it sooner.  I thanked him and told him I’d have to rent from someone who could guarantee me the place at the start of the month.  I told him to give me a call at the end of the month if he hadn’t found someone, and if I hadn’t rented elsewhere I’d take his place  (at which point, he figured having me was better than a chance at someone else and said the place was mine on the first if I wanted it).  Immediately, seeing things from his perspective, I realized the threat of having me rent from someone else (and him losing the tenant in front of him for a potential tenant who may or may not show up) was the way to get the deal done.  Having the option to rent to someone else was a foolish thing for him to even try to get, since considering it for even a second from my perspective there’s no way any tenant would have agreed to it (and it slightly soured our relationship from the start).

From psychology the theory of mind deals with developmental stage where people start to understand that other’s have a different mental representation of the world than themselves.  Unless someone is a child (below 3 or 4 years old) or suffers from a developmental disorder (such as autism spectrum disorder) there’s no excuse why they can’t understand other people’s perspective on a conflict and structure a deal that appeals to the other side.  This doesn’t guarantee agreement (or even a good deal), but ignoring this is a recipe for prolonged conflict.

Categories
Investing

Efficient Versus Inefficient Markets

I recently read John T. Reed’s “How to Buy Real Estate for at Least 20% Below Market Value” (Vol. 1) and enjoyed it.  He warns that the book is only applicable for buying in America (and actually refuses to sell it internationally, an American friend got it for me for Christmas).  He’s right that the specific techniques won’t work in Canada, however there’s an underlying theme to the book that I think *is* applicable anywhere.

In the introduction he relates when he was a real estate agent and would hear about people buying property for dramatically lower than market value.  He didn’t believe it, as he had access to the MLS and could see what properties sold for (and he NEVER saw a property that sold for much less than market value).  Eventually he realized that the problem was his source of data.  The properties selling through MLS were selling close to market price because it was an efficient marketplace.  In order to buy property for dramatically under market price, buyers needed to go to inefficient, non-MLS markets.

To me, an efficient marketplace is good at bringing together equally motivated buyers and sellers.  Inefficient marketplaces are bad at this, and often goods remain unsold or sell for far less than they’re worth.

I’ve never sold anything on E*Bay (I don’t *THINK* I’ve ever bought anything on it either).  Some of my friends have used it and like it, but I’ve found that typically they either are selling on it (and getting top dollar for what they’re selling) or are using it to buy hard-to-find goods.  I’ve never heard about people getting killer low prices on E*Bay.  Again, this is an efficient market, and its good for getting market price on goods, but not a great place to find deals.  One technique I’ve heard for finding good deals on E*Bay is looking for items that have been misspelled (like a search for “Bufy the Vampyre Slayer”).  If someone posts the item with the name spelled incorrectly, its often overlooked by the majority of buyers, and you have the chance of getting a good deal.  This is an example of an inefficient market hiding inside an efficient market.

The examples he gives in his book are situations like foreclosures, buying properties with title problems, tenants-in-common (when multiple people share ownership of the same property), and execution sales (where a lost legal judgement can be used to seize a property from its owner).  In each of these situations, real estate agents (and the vast majority of buyers) don’t want to touch these properties with a 10-foot pole.  Because of this, it becomes difficult for buyers and sellers to find each other and the opportunity for good deals occurs.

I had a personal experience with this when I bought my condo.  As I’ve related in the past, the place was quite “rough around the edges” when I got it and I got a good price on it because of that.  Most buyers weren’t interested in doing (or supervising) the necessary renovations to make it habitable, so I was only competing with other buyers willing to renovate (which was a smaller group).  This is the whole basis of the flipping strategy, which ironically has become a hard way to make money as more people are pursuing it, increasing competition on available properties, and decreasing the profit.

There are arbitrage opportunities to make money (or a living) by moving goods between inefficient and efficient markets (beyond the property flipping example).  In my home town a used book dealer would visit all the garage sales on weekends and buy cheap books they had for sale.  The sellers didn’t know if they’d be able to sell them in the rest of the day,  ultimately just wanted to get rid of junk more than anything, and would give him a very good price.  He’d then put them on the shelves of his store where they could sit until they found the right person who was eager to read it and willing to pay a premium for the book.  Even in this case, he’s really moved the book from a very inefficient market to an inefficient market.  The efficient market would be the book store that has everything new, and will order whatever you want that they don’t have on the shelf (and charge you top dollar for this convenience).

As an aside, Mike told me recently that he thinks our book reviews are some of our least popular posts and that we’ll do fewer of them in the future.  I’ve since thought that MAYBE people like them, but just tend not to have any comments about them.  If you’ve liked (or disliked) our reviews in the past, please comment below and it’ll probably influence how likely similar posts are to appear on the site.

Categories
Personal Finance

Illusionary Competency

There’s an old parable about 4 blind Indian mystics trying to describe an elephant. The first, running his hand along the elephant’s side says “elephants are rough and wrinkled”. The second mystic, touching the elephant’s tusks declares “no they aren’t, they’re hard and smooth”. The third, feeling the trunk, argues “well, at least we can agree that elephants are a thick tube with an opening at the end” to which the fourth, holding the tail responds “they are a tube, but they’re a thin tube and there’s no opening on the end”.

I ran into this recently when an administrative assistant at the school did some work using Latex (a popular piece of software for creating documents with a precise layout, often used for journal articles and thesis preparation). She had been given some citations to put into bibtex format (a tool for managing references often used with Latex) along with some citations already in bibtex format to use as a template. She saw me in the hall and said “I put some citations into Latex and it was very easy. Why does everyone talk about Latex as if it’s complicated? I found it very easy!”

Beyond mistakes she made in the part she did (which was understandable, she didn’t know how to compile or cross link the documents so she wouldn’t be able to test if it was right or not), there are a massive number of capabilities that Latex has that she wasn’t even aware of. I was at a lose loss how to politely answer her and try to correct her limited view of a mature, sophisticated tool.

I think this is common when people start exploring a new area. They learn something and mistakenly believe they have achieved knowledge or mastery of the entire field (since, like the blind Indian mystics, they are unable to see the field as a whole). Gambling might be the most obvious example. I’ve linked before to Roger William’s “A Casino Odyssey” where he makes the observation that often people’s early experiences gambling will determine their life-long perspective on it (if they win the first few times they’ll get addicted, if they lose the first few times they won’t have any interest in it again). Stock investing can be a similar experience. If people happen to start investing in a bear market, after a couple months (or years) experience they’ll start thinking they’re the next Warren Buffett. Then the market turns on them and they realize (hopefully) how little they understood what they were doing. Conversely, I’ve known people who put a big chunk of money into the market recklessly, lost big, then sworn off stocks for life. The market isn’t as dangerous as they believe it is, but they’re unwilling to learn more about it or try again.

Even when someone starts feeling that they’ve mastered a complex area of human knowledge or skill, it can be difficult to assess their actual expertise. It can be even harder to assess this ourselves. The Beardstown Ladies, among others, show us that publishing a book (and having Japanese investors making a pilgrimage to meet you) doesn’t prove that you understand the basics (even concepts such as rate of return).

As much as I’d love to finish this post with a simple way you can actually assess your competence, I’ve got nothing. Standardized tests and certification can be easily gamed (Q: What do you call the guy who graduates at the bottom of his medical school class? A: Doctor). Having other people assess you is often unreliable and can be easily influenced by factors about you other than your ability in that area. Plus, how do you ensure that they’re competent *TO* assess you? Similarly, in the workplace or other fields where proficiency is judged, many other elements in addition to the person’s skill in a particular area affect their performance (such as their work ethic, how personable they are, how well they get along with team mates, etc).