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Personal Finance

John Bogle: “The stock market is a giant distraction.”

This guest post is written by Mike from the The Oblivious Investor.   This blog has been around for a few months and is very investment oriented (but not too techy) so I would recommend you check it out (I’m a regular reader).

For me, the above quote was enough to make Bogle’s Little Book of Common Sense Investing worth the read.

In just 7 words, Bogle manages to:

•    Provide an insightful piece of investing wisdom.
•    Make you question your assumptions.
•    Offend an entire industry.

So what is Bogle saying here? I think he’s making two distinct points. First, he’s making a statement about intelligent investing. Second, he’s offering a rather pointed criticism of the financial services industry.

Passive investing is a good thing

As to investment strategy, Bogle (as usual) is suggesting a system of passive investing. We can’t predict whether the market is about to go up or about to go down, and attempting to do so will only harm our performance. Similarly, attempting to pick individual stocks is unlikely to prove successful.

So if we stand to gain nothing by timing the market or picking stocks, what’s the point in watching the market? There is no point. All it can do it tempt us toward poor decisions. Better to ignore it.

Financial service is expensive

Bogle’s second point is one about the financial services industry in general, and it’s a bit less obvious. At their most fundamental level, financial markets exist to connect providers of capital (investors) with users of capital (businesses). Without a doubt, this is a valuable service.

However, in recent decades, the financial services industry has convinced us that it performs another service as well: Enhancement of investment returns. This is, however, impossible by definition.

There’s no way that investors—as a group—can earn more than the total earnings of the businesses in which they invest. The total return earned by investors must be equal to the return earned by the businesses in our economy, minus the costs of investing.

We can therefore conclude that, rather than enhancing investor returns, the financial services industry must in fact be reducing investor returns by the sum total of all the fees that they charge us. Sadly, these costs of investing—mutual fund sales loads, fund operating expenses, brokerage fees, etc.—now total in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

Conclusion – ignore the market

I think Bogle’s reference to the stock market as a “giant distraction” is his way of telling the reader precisely how much value he sees in the services offered by most firms in the industry.

Takeaway lessons for us:
1.    Turn off BNN and CNBC, and
2.    Do your best to minimize the investment costs you pay.

About the Author:
Mike writes at The Oblivious Investor, where he regularly reminds readers to ignore the noise of the market. If you like this post, subscribe to his blog to read more.

Categories
Personal Finance

Happy New Year and Stock Picks For 2009

Happy New Year to all our readers – last year was a tough one in the markets but I can’t complain.  My financial situation is better now than it was last year thanks to some aggressive mortgage paydown.  In other areas of my life – our son is a year older and is healthy, happy (most of the time) and doing very well.  We also celebrated the birth of our daughter in March who is also healthy, happy (most of the time) and progressing quite well.

I also started a new site called ABCs of Investing which deals with very basic investment terms and concepts using 2 short posts per week.  A sample post explains exactly what the top down investing method is.  Alternatively, a bottoms up investing style might be more to your liking.

A special thanks goes out to Mr. Cheap who bought both my son and daughter a share of BMO each and created a DRIP.  A very generous gift and very time consuming as well to set the DRIP up.

So even with the crappy markets – 2008 was a great year!

Stock picks

I entered into a stock picking contest with some other bloggers – who shall rue the day they decided to do battle with Four Pillars!  🙂

Traditionally, the only way to do well with stock picking contests is to swing for the fences and hope for the best.  With that in mind I picked 4 small Canadian oil stocks which have been beaten down quite a bit.  If oil rebounds next year then these stocks should perform quite well.  There are probably better plays on the price of oil but this is the best I could do on 3 minutes of research.  Keep in mind these are pretty much random selections – do not consider this a recommendation or any kind of advice!

BCF.to – Bronco Energy $1.27.  I started watching this stock a few months ago when it was trading at $10 (it’s now less than $1.50).  My Dad saw some analyst recommending it on BNN – great call – down 85%!

HOC.to – Holly Corp  $3.65

TOG.to – TriStar Oil and Gas  $11.41

CLL.to – Connacher Oil Gas  $0.74





The other competitors (click to see their picks)

The Wild Investor stock picks

Zack Stocks stock picks

Dividend Growth Investor stock picks

My Traders Journal stock picks

Where Does All My Money Go stock picks

Intelligent Speculator stock picks

The Financial Blogger stock picks

Million Dollar Journey stock picks


Categories
Personal Finance

First Margin Call

This post was originally published on Mr. Cheap’s original blog.  When he brought over all his posts – some of them didn’t make it so I’m planning to publish a few of them over time.

I recently got my first margin call from E*Trade for about $3K. It scared the hell out of me, not because I could pay (I had the money sitting in a cash account and just transferred it over), but the call was unexpected and I was worried that I misunderstood the system to the degree that I had triggered it.

The day after the call, I got on the phone to E*Trade and admitted that I’d had a margin call, told them that it was no problem paying it (and I’d already transferred the funds), but that I didn’t understand what had put me into a margin call situation. The man on the phone didn’t apologise, but it turns out that the problem was on E*Trades end and they considered a bunch of “safe” stocks (which they’ll loan 70% of the stock value on) as “riskier” stocks (which they’ll loan 50% on). He told me the call wouldn’t be enforced, and after checking my account assured me I was fine (even if I hadn’t transferred the cash in).

I used the situation to get more details about margin calls and what would have happened if it had been a real call. Apparently the speed on which they’ll sell your stocks depends how far over the line you are (he said they’ll give you 3 or 4 days if you’re just a little over, bit will sell immediately if you’re significantly past your limit). I asked him for good customers with a conservative portfolio if they ever will waive a margin call or increase their loaned %, and it turns out that its actually a law how much they can allow people to buy on credit (so short answer, no).

In the end I was happy to have my understanding of the margin account challenged (and happy that it was a problem on their end and not in my understanding). I learned some new things about my account, which is always a good thing.

Categories
Investing

Free Stock Trend Analysis By Email

This service by INO offers a free trend analysis of any stock you desire to help you with your technical analysis. All Canadian and American stocks are eligible – all you have to do is enter the stock symbol or name, your first name (Homer?) and an email – that’s it!  No cost or obligation.

I thought it would be fun to try it out on one of my latest purchases (BCE) and see what it says.  According to the email I got – there is a strong downtrend in place (no kidding) and the last price is below the 20 day moving average.

Given that the BCE deal just fell through – this probably wasn’t the best stock to do submit for analysis, but it was fun to see what the service would provide.

You can sign up to receive stock trend analysis on as many stocks as you like.  A stock trend analysis email will arrive in your inbox after every trading day.

Also – check out my write up on free stock trading videos.

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Investing

Comparing Market Cap ETF vs Dividend ETF – How Much Duplication?

I had a reader question the other day where they mentioned buying both XIU (iShares Cdn Large Cap 60 ETF) and XDV (iShares Cdn Dividend Index Fund ETF) for their portfolio.  I had responded that although I wasn’t sure, I suspected that might be a lot of duplication in the two funds since XIU has all the biggest public Canadian companies – a lot of which are good dividend stocks and would probably also be in XDV.

Duplicate holdings is a common problem in mutual funds – especially in a market like Canada where there are not a lot of different companies to buy for the larger funds.

I decided to do a bit research and find out if there was as much duplication as I suspected in the two funds.  The question I want to answer is if it is worthwhile to own both funds for diversification purposes or will just one do.

Number of companies in common

The first and simplest criteria was how many companies are in both ETFs.  This isn’t necessarily all that meaningful since one ETF might have a lot of XYZ company whereas the other might only have a small holding.

XIU 60 has 61 holdings (can’t they count?), XDV dividend has 31 holdings, there are 15 companies that they have in common.  This seems like quite a bit since it means that half of the companies in the dividend ETF are also in the XIU ETF.

Amount of market cap in common

What I did here is take the companies that are in both ETFs and compare the percentage holdings and add up the smaller number.  For example if CIBC was 9% of the dividend fund and 5% of the XIU then I counted that as 5% in common (by market cap).   This totalled up to 31%.  This was a smaller number than I expected which means that a good portion of the dividend ETF is not represented in the XIU 60.

Measuring correlation between the ETFs

The next test I did, which should have been the first and only test since it is the only one that has any real meaning is to measure the amount of correlation between the two ETFs.   Correlation is a measure of the relationship between the prices of the two ETFs.

A measure of 1 means that they always move in price exactly the same way, a measure of 0 means they are completely uncorrelated and a measure of -1 means they always move in price in exactly the opposite direction.  One of the main concepts behind building a portfolio is to try to find different assets that are not correlated with each other.

To accomplish this I needed some historical price data which I managed to find at Yahoo Finance.  To figure out the correlation I used the Excel correl function (is there anything Excel can’t do?).  XDV dividend has only been around since the end of 2005 so the data is only for a bit less than 4 years.  Not being a stats guy I’m not sure if this is a long enough period to be meaningful but it’s all I’ve got.  Regardless, the correlation “r” number was 0.72 which implies some benefit for diversification but not a whole lot.

Performance

The last thing I looked at was performance.  Since the time period is fairly short I’m not looking to see which ETF did better but rather to look at the difference in performance.  Ishares.ca website has a handy calculator just for this purpose.  I choose the last 3 years since the next category was 5 years which wouldn’t work for XDV dividend.

3 year total return

  • XIU Large Cap 60 = -12.98%
  • XDV Dividend = -18.19%

From what I’ve read the XDV dividend has a higher ratio of financials than the XIU 60 which is probably one of the reasons for the big performance difference.  The XDV dividend has a higher mer (0.5%) than XIU 60 (0.17%) which would account for about 1% of the 5% difference.

Conclusion

I looked at 4 categories to see how different XIU and XDV are:

  • Similar companies – half of the XDV dividend companies are in XIU.
  • Similar companies by stock market capitalization – 31% of the companies market cap are in both ETFs.
  • Correlation – over the last 4 years the correlation is 0.72.
  • Performance – the two ETFs were about 5% off in terms of total performance over 3 years.

What does it all mean?   Hard to say – there are much better ways to diversify your portfolio – REITs, small cap, foreign holdings would likely all have correlations that are less than 0.72.  I’m also not crazy about the higher mer of the dividend ETF.

I think if you want to have most of your equity in Canada then buying partially overlapping ETFs might be the only way to diversify without getting into individual stocks.  Personally I like to be diversified over the whole world so for me, the XIU Large Cap 60 by itself is good enough – in my case adding XDV would not increase my diversification enough to make the higher mer worthwhile.  XIC (TSX 300) is also a good choice.

Categories
Investing

The Death Of Index Investing And Other Silly Stats

I recently came across yet another post on investing which goes something along the lines of “If you invested 10 years ago in the Dow then you would have earned exactly nothing in that time”.  I hate to pick on any one blogger since I’ve read these articles all across the blogosphere but this one is the latest and he also had the temerity to tie in poor index performance with the death of index investing.  Of course all the stock pickers out there ALWAYS beat the index so poor market are no concern to them…!  I want to emphasise that Jacob at Extreme Early Retirement does a great job with his blog and I don’t want to sound like I don’t like the blog – just that one post!  🙂

What about the dividends?

Usually these posts look at the point value of an index at a previous time, say 10 years ago and compare it to the present index point value.  This is incorrect because they are missing dividends.  Published index returns always included reinvested dividends and any type of analysis on index performance should always include the same.  Admittedly, if you are looking at a 10 year period where the index point value hasn’t changed, the addition of dividends isn’t going to change the argument very much but it should be there.

Selectivity of stats

Why is it that all the articles always pick the worst peak to trough period to illustrate their rather suspect point that maybe equity investing or even index investing is evil?  Have you ever heard of such a person who invests all their money on the same day the markets peak and then doesn’t invest any more?  Doesn’t seem all that likely to me.  Most people invest their money over time because that’s how they earn it, then save it, then invest it.  Picking one particular time period to prove or disprove a theory is like measuring your gas mileage one mile at a time and then using the best or worst mile to prove your point.

Investment performance

And what about active stock pickers – did they all do better than the indexers over that period?  Or did some of them do better, some of them the same, and some of them didn’t do as well?  I’ve asked many bloggers and non-bloggers who claim they can beat the index by picking their own stocks to prove it – measure their performance and let me know if they did better than the market or not.  You know what?  Not one of them has ever shown that they can beat the market – oddly enough, most of them don’t even bother to measure their performance.  How can someone who doesn’t even know how their own investment method measures up criticize someone else’s?

What is average?

One of the criticisms of indexing is that you will only achieve “average” results – again – will I do better by randomly picking stocks or paying someone lots of money to pick them for me?  One thing about indexing is that you will get the index return minus a very small fee – you will never beat the index but more importantly you won’t underperform the index (except for the small fee) either.  Active pickers can certainly outperform the market but they can also underperform as well – sometimes by a huge margin.  I like making money – if I thought it was possible for me to beat the market then you can rest assured that I would give it my best effort.

Dividends, smividends

Ok – one more rant… I like getting dividends just as much as the next investor but I really think there is an over-weighting on the importance of dividends in the blogosphere.  Yes, the idea of living off your dividends is nice but investment performance measures total return which is capital gains plus any reinvested dividends and interest payments.  That’s it.  I don’t care in what form the company pays out in the end – if the total return is higher, then its a better investment.  If that includes dividends, fine – if not, that’s fine too.

Categories
Investing

Free Educational Stock Trading Videos

I recently found out about a company (INO) that offers free stock trading videos online.  While I’m not into active trading anymore (at one time I had a big interest in it), there are plenty of investors out there who love to trade stocks.

INO offers free online videos which are basically educational trading strategy lessons for someone who wants to trade stocks.  This particular link leads to four different videos by trading experts who give up some of their secrets.

First you go to an intro page where you must register to watch the videos – this involves a basic registration – no banking info or credit info is required.

The four videos available:

Market Wizard InsightsJack Schwager explains the traits and behaviour patterns that supertraders have in common.

Applying Technical – 90 minute video – verteran market analyst John Murphy explains how he looks at the markets.

Five New Tools for WinnersJake Bernstein is probably the most prolific writer and researcher of material for today’s individual trader.

The Art of Morphing – Every position is the right position when things go exactly as planned.  If not??

INO TV
Categories
Investing

Will A Big Canadian Bank Fail?

I have to admit that while I haven’t been bothered by the falling markets, today I found it a bit tough for some reason.  It seems like every day the market falls and if it’s only 1 or 2% then that is ok.  Well today the Canadian market fell 9%.  9%!!! That would be a bad year by itself and it was only one crappy trading day of many crappy trading days.  The worst part was the banks – they have been pummelled this year and today the big 5 went down by an average of almost 13%.  13%!!! Very depressing I thinks.

Now, I haven’t gone all anti-Bernstein or anything – I have no plans to sell any equities under any circumstance.  What my concern is now is will one of the big Canadian banks fail? Here are some things I’m worried about:

Canadian banks own bad US mortgages as well

Our banking system was recently named as the best in the world.  Our lending standards were much stricter than the US banks so everything should be ok?  The only problem is that from what I understand, the US banks got in trouble buying investments containing bad mortgages – it wasn’t necessarily all just from writing bad mortgages themselves.

The problem is that the Canadian banks also bought these same investments and have been slowly taking related writedowns all the while not talking about what their real exposure is.  These investments were enough to bring down some big US banks so why can’t they bring down a Canadian bank?  Yes, the Canadian banks have good business models so did Washington Mutual and Wachovia.  They had customers, lots of assets – a normal bank in other words – but they lost it all on the investment side.

A bad dividend trend

The thing that concerns me is that the US banks I mentioned all paid a dividend at one time.  When the stock went down the dividend yield went up…and up and up and up.  First there was a dividend cut and then the bank went out of business.

The dividend yields for the Canadian banks in order are:

  • BMO 8.4%
  • CIBC 7.3%
  • BNS 5.9%
  • Royal 5.6%
  • TD 5.4%

The ones that really stand out for me are BMO and CIBC – 7 or 8% dividends that don’t pay return of capital are too high.  Either they are mispriced or investors are expecting a dividend cut.  Now we haven’t seen the double digit dividend yields enjoyed by the US banks before they went belly up but the yield on BMO and CIBC has roughly doubled over the last year or so.

Summary

I really hope that none of the banks go under but I am concerned about it.  Can anyone please tell me that I’m wrong??