Categories
Investing

Buy Low, Sell High

One of the most basic of stock buying strategies is to buy low and sell high.  It makes absolute mathematical sense, but the difficulty is the execution.  Psychology works against us: when markets are high there’s a euphoria that makes it very easy to join in with the herd and buy high.  Conversely, when markets are low, it can seem like the world is ending and it makes it easy to sell low.  Both temptations will undermine your long term investment returns.

Years ago when the dot-com bubble burst I was tangled up with all the standard greed-driven tech stocks (JDS Uniphase et al.).  About 2 months after the burst, I was talking to my broker in New York (I’d never pay for a broker again!).  He told me that everyone says buy low, sell high, but no one does it.  This is the time to buy low he assured me and tried to get me to put more money into the market.

I agreed with his philosophy, and told him so, but at the time I wasn’t working and was gearing up to go back to school so I just didn’t have any extra cash.  It was lucky for me that I didn’t, as things kept going down further and further.  Part of the scary part of bear markets is that no one knows where the bottom is.
Some people decide to sell, thinking they’re being wise to move into a cash position.  They stay in cash and miss the rally, and end up having to pay top dollar to buy back stocks later on.

Its scary times right now, with the TSX dropping 840 points yesterday.  If you get out now though, you’re buying high and selling low, which is probably not a great idea.  Some people will say they need their money and they can’t risk any more loses.  I’m sympathetic to this view, but if this is the case, they never should have had so much invested in equities to begin with.

If its not that you need the money, but just that you can’t stand the thought of losing any more, it might be worth considering leaving your stock alone, stop reading about the market, and let it play itself out.  They say a rise in stock price isn’t a valid reason to buy, and a drop in stock price isn’t a reason to sell, so make sure if you’re thinking about selling, you have reasons beyond the recent volatility.

Personal finance bloggers have been saying that evaluating your reaction to the current market tells you how risk averse you are.  If you’re panicking right now, in the future it’s probably best to keep a large fixed-income portion in your portfolio and stay very diversified.  If you’re able to ride this out without getting too excited, you’re probably a more risk-tolerant investor.

Have you sold stock recently?  Bought?  Stood pat?

Categories
Announcements

How To Clone Yourself

As a disclaimer to this post, I’ve only really run one business, which never had any employees and failed. With that being said, the ideas in this post have come from more successful entrepreneurs, and when I’ve run it past other people who run their own business they’ve found it intriguing.

“The E-Myth” by Michael E. Gerber presents the idea that most small-business owners are very good at the various tasks running their own business requires, but are very bad at training and managing other people to do those tasks. He suggests that the reason so many new businesses fail is that they grow beyond what the founder can handle, the founder isn’t able to handle the ever increasing demands, and they’re eventually crushed under their own weight. His book talks about how to consider all the processes that are required to run your business, formalize them, and allow them to be delegated to others.

When you talk to business owners, often they’ll complain that they’re so busy meeting the daily demands of their business that they can’t invest in their business growth. Often this is expressed as “trying to build a dock while you’re treading water” (this may be a Canadian expression, we like docks up here).

A common wish from small busienss owners is that they could clone themselves (and have twice as much of their own labour for business needs). This is actually possible.

The first step to accomplish this is to hire someone fresh out of school. Either high school if there’s no special skills required to run the business, or an appropriate program if there is (if you’re developing software, hire someone fresh out of a computer science or computer analyst program, if you’re running a small law office, hire a recently called to the bar lawyer).

People who have worked in the industry or elsewhere themselves will be more resistant to doing everything “your way”. They’ll have had the experience of doing things their own way and will figure some of these techniques are better than your approach. The real advantage to someone fresh out of school is that they’re used to learning to do things a certain way, and they’ll be more receptive to learning your approach.

Over the next 6 months, you work very closely with this new hire. Basically you involve them in your day-to-day tasks, and at first explain what you’re doing to them, then directly supervise them while they perform the tasks, then finally delegate increasingly complex business challenges for them to handle themselves (and monitor the outcome). Through this process you’re giving them intense training on how you operate your business and teaching them to think the way you do.

After the 6 months, they may not do everything exactly the same way you do, and there may still be things that are too complex for them, but chances are you’ll be able to trust them to handle the vast majority of business decisions the way you would. At this point you can either semi-retire or focus on higher level business challenges and let them deal with day-to-day operations.

One fear business owners will have is that at the end of the 6 months the person will quit. That’s definitely a valid concern, as you’re investing MASSIVE amounts of time and energy into this person. I’d minimize this risk by: 1) treat them the way you’d want to be treated, 2) pay them very well, and 3) keep a “carrot” dangling that they’ll keep moving up the ranks and eventually run the business. Some owners will try to just use 3 (since its the easiest – all promise, no delivery). The danger there is if the person ever starts doubting you’re word (perhaps you don’t follow through with something else you promised them), then they’ll probably head for the hills and you’ve lost them.

Some people may try to use a “stick” and get the new employee to sign a contract forbidding them to compete with you, or causing some sort of penalty if they quit before a certain length of time is up. No one likes to be treated this way, so I think its short-sighted to try to legally bind someone to you (if they just become a surly and unproductive employee because they’re sick of you but can’t quit, how is that any better than if they’d left?).

Your clone is going to be very valuable to your business for many years to come, so treat them like the valuable resource they are.

Another concern is that veteran employees may resent the new guy who is being groomed to be the second-in-command. This is valid too, and I’m not sure the best way to handle it.

Has anyone ever created a clone or been a clone themselves? Anyone who is currently running a business with employees, do you think this would work in practice?

Categories
Announcements

On-line / Off-line Toys

My last Wacky Business Idea was quickly debunked as someone is already doing it, so I decided to make it a “two-fer-the-price-of-one” this week and post another.

Webkinz is an incredibly popular toy for kids (at least it was incredibly popular last year) created by a Canadian company.  I thought the whole idea was great, so I bought one for my girlfriend at the time to check it out.  The basic idea is you buy an overpriced stuffed animal that comes with a “secret code”.  You enter this in their website, and it creates a virtual version of the stuffed animal.  You can then buy things for your virtual pet (toys and home furnishings), name it, play games with it and whatnot.  Each new webkinz you buy gives you another “friend” to play with.  Eventually they introduced “trading cards” that you can use to add new items for your pets (or sometimes new pets).

The actual “world” they created was kinda lame (the games weren’t much fun and the production quality wasn’t so good).  Apparently kids ate it up though, and would quickly discard the stuffed animals (but were happy to be paying $12 for the next virtual pet it represented).

It seemed to me that there were all sorts of ways this idea of tying virtual objects to real objects could be executed.  One possibility might be action figures (think GI Joe) that come with a code.  On-line, you can send your men into battle accomplishing missions using the skills at their disposal (so if you buy a figure with a flame thrower, you can use this to overcome obstacles in the on-line game).  You could buy different equipment, that would then be used in the virtual missions or battles with friends on-line (maybe a plastic med-kit could be bought for a buck, then given to one of your figures to save him if he gets injured).

Another idea might be lead miniatures, like those used in Warhammer.  Hobbyists could purchase figures and units and paint them and do battle in real life.  Each would also come with a code which would let you have an identical virtual army, that you could fight with using the same rules on-line (against a computer opponent or against other people).  Perhaps your virtual soldiers could even improve as they fought battles, getting better as time goes on (so your regiment of high-elf archers might become veterans after a number of battles and get some sort of bonus).

World of Warcraft did something SORT OF along these lines, when they had special rare cards in their trading card game that would “unlock” special items for your on-line characters, but it wasn’t an integral part of either game.  I think an important part of making something like this work is to strong tie the real world object to the on-line version.

One of the challenges with computer games is their isn’t usually any sort of scarcity.  If I’m playing a computer wargame, I can build an army of any size I want, and switch to a different sort of army if I get bored with the first.  This makes a large, well-constructed army unimpressive, since anyone can quickly and easily make one.  Limiting players’ options to only the pieces they’ve purchased, while being profitable for the company, would also have the effect of making an army more impressive.    In real life, its always impressive when someone has a big army they’ve assembled themselves, and typically if you don’t own certain figures, you can’t use them in a battle.  Newer players wouldn’t be able to participate in larger battles (or would have to play a smaller role), just because they don’t have enough soldiers.  Players would also become more invested in the army that’s theirs, because its theirs (and isn’t just something they created 10 minutes earlier in the software program).

I’m not so sure either of these ideas is a amazing, but I really think that Webkinz will just be the first of many toys / hobbies entering this space.  Any other ideas for something along the same lines?

Categories
Announcements

Off-Shore Tailoring

Years ago I was in Thailand renewing my visa to teach in Taiwan.  Throughout Thailand tailoring shops are common, where you can go in and get custom made clothes .  You look through a catalog, pick out the style and fabric that you like (they’ll even make knock offs of designer clothes, or try to make you something from a magazine).  Then, come back a few days later and pick up a complete, tailored wardrobe.

The individual tailoring shops don’t actually do the work themselves.  They just take your measurements and show you the options.  A number of the westerners I met were loading up on bootleg dvds and tailor made clothes.  I met an Irish podiatrist who was on his third trip there and he assured me that the clothes were far cheaper than back in Ireland, and the clothes he had purchased in the past were good quality.

I bought a suit there.  If you’ve never had anything custom tailored, it really rocks!  Basically it feels like that rare piece of clothing that just fits right.  Except it all fits well the first time you put it on.  I hate wearing dress shirts, but the dress shirts I got in Thailand felt great.

Sadly, I’ve since lost a bunch of weight and I look like a hobo when I wear it (its baggy everywhere).

You definitely want to be careful when you’re buying anything like this in a developing country.  Don’t pay them upfront (I’d give them AT MOST 25% of the cost when you order it), and make sure there’s plenty of time between when you get the clothes and when your plane leaves (so you can get them to fix any problems).  I’ve heard of women making a trip to Thailand just to have their wedding dress made, and apparently they save more than the cost of the trip.

An idea for a business would be to have a shop just like what they have in Thailand, except in a western country.  Get someone who can walk customers through their options and take measurements, then fax / e-mail the orders to the main tailoring facility in Thailand (or another country with cheap labour).  Get the clothes shipped back, and make any adjustments in person.

You’d offer your customers much cheaper rates for tailor-made clothes, in exchange for them being willing to wait while its shipped form overseas.

I’m not sure what the shipping costs would be, but its clothing so its certainly not very heavy.  You could get multiple items in each shipment (maybe get one big shipment every week).

One other issue was I went to a partial fitting, where they did a rough cut of the clothes, put them on me and made some more custom measurements, then they went back to the main shop for final fittings.  If you had to send it back and forth overseas repeatedly it may get to the point where the cost to produce the clothing is as high as locally tailors custom clothing.

For this post, or any other of the wacky business ideas I post, obviously I’m releasing any ownership claims I may have over these ideas. If you like something I post and feel like you can make money from it, please feel free to do so! Let me know when you’re opening and we’ll do a post on it to give you some free advertising.

Categories
Investing

Rothmans: Going, Going, Gone

I wrote at the beginning of August about Philip Morris’ (aka Altria) interest in purchasing Rothmans. It was a friendly takeover offer. The Rothmans board of directors recommended accepting the offer of $30 / share, a significant premium over the previous share price, and the highest price its ever been sold at (at the time of the offer).

My understanding was there were three possible reactions a shareholder could take:

  • Sell the shares when it shot up in price on news of the offer (briefly it went above $30 in hopes that their may be a higher offer int he future)
  • Accept the $30 / share bid and sell to Philip Morris
  • Fight the takeover and try to keep Rothmans an independent company

I was fairly sympathetic to each of these views.

  • There was a chance the deal might fall through: in this case, I think the share price would have dropped significantly (since they accepted a massive legal liability at the same time they announced the take over bid).
  • There was a chance that the deal might be improved:  Jarislowsky, Fraser Limited owned a big chunk of stock and had some valid reasons for demanding a little sweetner
  • There was a chance that the deal would go through as offered: In which case it made sense to either sell and get the cash ASAP or just wait it out and get the money when the deal closed.

Telly decided to get out while the getting was good, another blogger (who shall remain nameless since I don’t think they’ve publicly acknowledged being a ROC shareholder) thought that PM was “attempting to rip us off” (and wanted to get a better deal or would have been content to have the deal fall through and things go back to how they were before the offer).

In the end, I let my laziness handle the decision for me.  I did nothing (I didn’t even vote on the offer, I’m such a naughty shareholder).  The deal has gone through.  Philip Morris has extended their offer to tender shares for 10 days.  Unsure about the ramifications for shareholders, I called E*Trade and Rothmans’ investor relations on Sept 17th and got the following information out of them.

I asked Rothmans what would happen if we didn’t sell or accept the tender offer (which I was worried they’d treat me like an idiot, but the woman said it was a good question and had to put me on hold as she went to find out).  She told me that if we don’t accept the extended tender offer, after the end of the month we’ll continue being a shareholder, just like before.  The MAJOR change will be that Philip-Morris will be a majority shareholder, and as such can basically do what they want with the company.  When I asked her about the dividend policy, she laughed and said that’s the big question, Philip-Morris will basically be setting it after that point.  She also says that it will continue to trade on the TSX, but PM may take it private at some point in the future.

This DEFINITELY doesn’t sound like the type of company I want to own.  Philip Morris has extended their offer until the end of the month (to buy shares off of any shareholders for $30 / share) and today I called up E*Trade and accepted it.

I could have also sold my shares on the “open market”, which was offering $29.92 today (the $30 / share will come through at the end of September).  I decided to sell to PM because selling to them I don’t have to pay E*Trade’s trading fee ($20 for me), and I’ll get an extra $56.40 for my shares (705 of them).  I’m willing to wait 2 weeks to get an extra $80.

Categories
Book Review

Money for Nothing: Book Review and Interview with Derek Foster

Derek Foster is the author of “STOP WORKING: Here’s How You Can!”, “The Lazy Investor”, and most recently “Money for Nothing:  And Your Stocks for FREE”.  When I happened to stop by his website recently, I was surprised that there was a new book posted there (I enjoyed both his previous books but I hadn’t heard of his newest).  I contacted him and asked for a review copy and an interview and delightfully received both.

His new book presents some ideas for how to earn “more money faster” (especially targeting people who want to reach financial freedom faster but are behind in their savings).  He intended this book for more sophisticated readers (which I was happy about, as I found his 2nd book more basic than I would have liked – it was intended to target beginners).

The central idea (explained in detail in the book) is to sell put options (where you agree to POTENTIALLY buy a stock over a period of time for a set price) in order to earn income or to acquire stocks you want to own at a better price (hence the title).  He makes a fairly strong case that while there is risk in the process, it can be minimized much as a casino takes a risk every time it lets a gambler make a bet, but reliably gains overall.

This is a book for people interested in a fairly advanced vehicle to consider for improving your returns on stocks you’ve picked.  I’d recommend such people pick up this book as it’s a fast, informative and enjoyable read.  Beginner investors would be better served by other books (including Derek’s previous two books).  Passive investors will find little of interest.
STOP WORKING

I’m looking forward to reading the reactions to this book from other bloggers and the media.  Mr. Foster was good enough to answer my following questions by e-mail.

MC:  How quickly do you think you’ll get sick of Dire Straits references while you’re promoting your new book?

DF:  There are worst things I could be referenced to and have been referenced to, LOL!!!

MC:  I predict you’ll hear some pretty lame jokes about it before the month is out.  I believe “Money for Nothing” is currently available from your website “Stopworking.ca”, when will people be able to purchase it at traditional bookstores?  Are you going to be doing any signings / talks to promote it?

DF:  It’s available at my site and also at Chapters/Indigo across Canada. Independent bookstores will order it over time depending on their demand. So far the only speaking engagement will be at the Financial Forum Show in Toronto (January) – I generally don’t do many public speaking events.

MC:  It’s tempting to swing through Toronto to catch that.  Throughout the book you worked with returns ignoring inflation (e.g. pg 17), except when you discussed fixed income. Did you feel your readers would already understand this distinction between real and nominal returns, that it was unimportant, or that it would obscure your message?

DF:  My first draft had nominal and real rates of return, but I always get “non-investors” to read my books and let me know what is confusing for them. I went with nominal returns for simplicity from feedback I received.

MC:  Whenever I’ve posted and tried to stress the difference, it definitely made the post more convoluted, I can understand stripping it out to simplify things.  I’ve made the same mistake you have by buying too soon (pg 23) and the whole “don’t try to catch a falling knife” adage always makes me glum.  HOWEVER, one of the downsides of your put selling strategy is that you will sometimes (often?) not execute a trade (the option won’t be exercised) and you’ll miss a dip in the stock.  Do you view these two “risks” as balancing each other out, an unavoidable aspect of investing (its impossible to know the point of maximum pessimism?) or are you now completely and totally in the put selling camp (and will never try to buy on the dips) and feel its better to miss a buy rather than overpay?

DF:  A few years back Warren Buffett was sitting on over $40 billion – waiting for “the perfect pitch”…and he kept waiting. I always hate waiting to buy (while earning 2% in my bank account) and worrying I might miss out – so I often pulled the trigger too soon. Buffett’s had the financial war chest to do some buying lately and overall his patient strategy speaks for itself. I’m trying to increase my “margin of safety” with my purchases and move as close to Buffett as I can. The “money for nothing” strategy will help me get paid to wait for my own “perfect pitches”.

MC:  You make the point in your book that getting a stock at as low a price as possible dramatically improves your returns, so I don’t blame you with keeping your focus on getting a good price.  There’s clearly a passion in the Canadian investing community for your style of stock selection.  Have you ever been tempted to start investing for other people (a mutual fund or whatever) or would that be too much like work for a retired guy?

DF:  Professional investors are forced to show short-term gains (or at least keep pace with their peers). In the late 90s, my portfolio held steady while hi-tech investors gained – but this was reversed after 2000 and my portfolio did very well. However, if I would have been investing other people’s money, I would have been fired long before my portfolio strategy bore fruit.

MC:  The short term focus of investors can be discouraging.  Your approach seems to be built on a similar philosophical outlook to Geraldine Weiss and Tom Connolly.  What do you think of their approaches (neither is listed in your recommended reading)?  Both approach buying in a similar manner to you, but Weiss’ idea of selling dividend stocks when they are “overvalued” is markedly different than your’s and Connolly’s “buy and hold forever”.  Are you ever tempted to sell a stock that’s shot up in value more than the dividend has increased and buy something with a larger income stream?

DF:  I generally try not to sell and buy something else. If I sell, that triggers capital gains which means I now have less capital to put to work in another investment. If I keep my money invested, I’m essentially getting an “interest-free” loan from the government (by deferring capital gains taxes)

MC:  Buying and holding forever definitely simplifies things (and has solid reason for doing so, as you say).  The MoneyGardener and I have gotten into a few friendly debates over whether dividend yield or dividend growth is the more important consideration when selecting companies.  Which side would you weigh in on (or are we arguing about angels dancing on the head of a pin)?  I may not include this question if you agree with him ;-).

DF:  I had some “high-yield, slow growth” investments when I retired – so that I could stop working quickly. I didn’t want to continue to rely on earned income for any longer than I had to. However, I tried to balance that with “lower yield, higher growth” investments so that my income would keep growing faster than inflation.

MC:  A diplomatic answer, which I’ll take as complete and utter agreement with my position ;-).  Many authors publish articles or books and reading what they write is the only way to interact with them.  You’ve taken a far more interactive approach in the “Canadian Business” forums.  There, in the blogging world, and in the national press you have been both praised and attacked (sometimes by the same people).  I’ve been impressed that you seem to keep your cool under attacks.  Is that just a part of running a business (you can’t get into flame wars with your readers) or are you really that unflappable?  You respond to readers’ questions on-line and in your books, have you ever thought about starting a blog?  Do you regularly read any of the Canadian personal finance blogs (other than Four Pillars, of course ;-)?

DF:  I get and offer feedback for a few reasons (some selfish, some not). It helps answers readers’ questions in case there are things they didn’t understand, additional coverage helps sell books, I get ideas from investors on what topics they are interested in (ideas for new books), and my strategy can be challenged just in case there are some factors I haven’t considered.

MC:  I think you’re right that there are benefits to both your readers and yourself from your approach (which has been quite different than the traditional publishing approach).  The Canadian Capitalist points out that there has recently been an exceptional decade of very good returns for dividend stocks.  Are you concerned that people who follow your strategy after looking at the results you post for the last decade might be disappointed with their future returns?  Do you think that your early retirement may have been possible in that environment but that those of us investing today might have to wait a bit longer?  You suggest in your 2 most recent books that you think refinements in your strategy would have let you retire even younger.  Is that assuming returns comparable to what you experienced in the past or are you confident about that even in the current and upcoming market environment?

DF:  Dividend growth is based on earnings growth over time, and with 3-plus billion people suddenly adopting capitalism, I feel dividends of good companies should grow nicely over time. I think I would have retired sooner if I had followed my strategy from the beginning. I am a better investor today than when I was on my early retirement journey.

MC:  I hope those of us using some of your ideas are as successful as you have been.  Almost all investing books have a “good story” (like the book on commodities investing you mention on pg 29-30 which puts forward the idea that developing nations would lead to a boom in commodity prices). The philosophies behind them all seem to make sense, but often they are mutually contradictory (and will even attack each other).  How do you recommend readers select from a range of authors who each suggest future gains from their approach?  Obviously trying each out over a couple of decades isn’t possible, and as you quote Buffett “if past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”.

DF:  Buy solid companies that sell products/services that are needed and then sit back and collect the dividends. If there is a “story” you agree with, add some solid companies within that area and then sit back and collect dividends. Repeat as necessary.

MC:  I’m certainly a big fan of collecting dividends!  You’re quite damning of buying on margin (going so far as saying your Altria/Philip Morris bet was one of your worst investing mistakes).  I have a leveraged plan (using margin, as you discourage, instead of a paid off house as you encourage).  What level of investor expertise would you consider acceptable for a small margin position (maybe 10% on margin), or do you stand by your assertion that no one should ever do it?

DF:  Once you margin, you are dependent on stock market fluctuations. That’s why I would only borrow money in situations where I’m not suddenly forced to come up with money to cover losses such as a HELOC – I don’t want to depend on the performance of the stock market.

MC:  Its definitely good advice to make absolutely sure your broker can never force you to sell (as you mention in your book).  You also mention at the end of your book that you currently have puts on a number of US companies.  At what point in your “financial journey” did you first start using your options strategy?

DF:  I don’t generally like options as it always seemed like gambling to me (a loser for every winner), so it’s only fairly recently that I started using the put option strategy.

MC:  I suspect there will be some people with a strong reaction to options, but I think you do a good job of explaining the basic idea of selling puts as well as the benefits and risks.  I expect the primary attack people will make on your book is that buyers may sell puts on stocks they want to own, the options won’t be executed, and they will miss out on gains they could have made by buying the stock instead of selling the put (if we hit a strong bull market, they’ll have the nice return from the premiums, but will have missed out on a nicer run up in stock price).  Especially if they have the cash sitting in a savings account and could have just made the purchase outright.  Alternatively, some *MAY* attack it from the opposite direction, saying that you may be forced to buy a stock at a higher price than its “worth”.  I don’t think there’s any value in the second attack (since you’d face the same risk if you’d bought the stock and it dropped in price), but I’m somewhat sympathetic to the first one.  You mention in your books that you’re acting as a casino, accepting the volatility in exchange for the options premium.  Do you think this will be the point more traditional investor fixate on or do you think there’s another element of your strategy that will bother them more?

DF:  If you have a target price to buy a stock at, if it never reaches that target price –you’d never buy the stock. If you sell options at that same target price, how are you in a different position? (except for the fact you’ve earned premium income) In my strategy, I’m harnessing volatility to my long-term advantage (the same way any value investor does).

MC:  Yes, definitely.  With each of your books I’ve enjoyed the ideas, but have had trouble with the execution.  In “Stop Working” I read it when it was first published and decided I should buy Pfizer and GM.  I lost my nerve (after talking to my father) and have been somewhat relieved that I didn’t buy GM as they’ve been going through a prolonged melt-down since.  Years later I picked up BMO, NA, ROC, BAC and GE following your approach (and have been happy with them, even though overall I’m in the red).  I liked your DRIP approach in Lazy Investor, but never went through the process of setting one up (partially I was past the point where I needed to do so, I had enough cash to justify an account with discount broker).  Similarly, I’ve looked into options and found them VERY complex.  You recommend going to a discount broker options seminar to learn how to execute the strategy you recommend.  Do you think many of your readers will follow through on this?  Do you think all of them will understand it well enough to be executing trades selling puts?  Do you think they’ll have trouble getting authorization from their brokers for an options update to their account (I’m imagining people manning the call centers will start hearing “Money for Nothing” by Derek Foster as a justification why they should quality for a higher level of trading)?

DF:  I don’t mean to be offensive, but GM does not fit the criteria I outlined for stocks in “STOP WORKING” – I would never touch it with a 10-foot pole as it fails on many fronts. The “money for nothing” strategy is very simple, IMO. Figure out how much you’re willing to pay for various stocks, then sell options at those strike prices.

MC:  You’re definitely not offensive!  Considering buying GM is but one of the many, many foolish things I’ve done.  What do your family and friends think of your books?  Do any / most / all of them follow your investing approach?  (other than your kids, who clearly *do* follow your approach <grin>)  What does your wife make of it all (maybe she assumes all Canadian men are best selling authors :-)?

DF:  Some have asked me for advice, but I don’t go there for a variety of reasons. Investing is a big part of who I am, so my wife accepts that (and is happy with the results).

MC:  A happy wife is a happy life.  Have you had anyone approach you having lost money using your strategy?  What was your reaction?  (anyone providing financial advice or ideas would have to deal with this I imagine, I still feel awful after I mentioned to a friend that I thought “Washington Mutual” might be a good buy during the sub-prime meltdown).

DF:  Again, I don’t get into specific stock picks. I have never had anyone who has mentioned my dividend-based strategy did not work for them. There are a few people who emailed saying the strategy helped them reach their financial goals – which was gratifying.

MC:  Not getting into specific stock picks is unbelievably good advice (which I’ve heard many times and foolishly ignored, see what I mean about the GM thing?).  How many more books do you expect to write?  Any ideas for the next one yet?

DF:  I have no idea what I’m doing next week, let alone any plans for another book. I’ll probably write another (I enjoy it), but it will depend on what ideas are generated from people who contact me.

MC:  Well, if you’re ever looking for ideas for a book, I have some about a frugal man (and the women that love him) that’d make a great romance novel…

Many, many thanks to Derek Foster for sending me a copy of his book and for taking the time out of his busy schedule to answer my incredibly long list of questions.

I’ll be passing my copy of his book (with a personal message written to Mr. Cheap on the inside cover, for extra collectibility) along to Mike, who in turn will pass it along to Guiness416 (both of whom will hopefully consider writing a review).
STOP WORKING

Categories
Opinion

Misinformation

Both of my uncles (by marriage thankfully) are huge bullshitters (as defined by “To attempt to mislead or deceive by talking nonsense“). I found it bizarre when they’d say things, I’d look it up later, and without fail it would be incorrect. With one of them, it’s so consistent that I can rely on what he says being wrong (if he says something I previously believed to be true, I’ll look it up just to make sure). I have no idea what the women in my family find attractive about them.

Throughout our lives we are fed information that isn’t true, and I think two important questions are “why would people do this to us?” and “what is the harm in it?”

Some people just aren’t very bright and a subset of these people are highly opinionated. I’d love it if they were self-aware enough to realize that a number of the opinions they spout are garbage and do a bit more research. However, I’m sympathetic to this group as I don’t think they mean harm and usually they’re pretty easy to spot. I’ll also humour people who clearly have a mental problem. I’ve known at least one genuine compulsive liar: people realized soon after meeting her that she wasn’t quite right and treated her with compassion and sympathy for the most part.

There are also people who spread misinformation because someone deceived them and they think its true. I don’t blame people in this situation, as long as they sincerely believe that what they’re saying is true. I hope that people in this position are willing to revise their beliefs when / if they come across evidence that they’re wrong.

I used to (naively) try to offer an alternative rationale to people if they were telling me something I knew was false. A while back a friend started talking about how a great stock buying strategy was buying companies before the stock split (“then you get twice as many shares!”). I tried to explain this was like saying you made money by exchanging a dollar for 4 quarters, that the underlying company hasn’t changed and you had twice as many shares, each worth half the previous value. He got upset with me. I’ve given up on this most of the time, and just nod my head and sadly say “good luck with that” when I see people making big bets on misinformation.

People making a career out of tricking us, like demagogues or scammers, obviously do their best to confuse us with misinformation (but I think we usually know its coming after a few bad experiences).

The motivation that really bugs me (and what I think is behind my uncles), is people who like to be in the position of knowing more than the people around them. I don’t think this is a terrible desire (although it certainly isn’t very noble), but it turns really ugly when people are too lazy to learn things and just make stuff up (guaranteed you’ll know more than everyone else if you’re talking about stuff you invented).

After listening to my uncles for a few years, I found myself in the disturbing situation that sometimes a topic would come up that they’d babbled about and I’d remember the garbage they’d said (instead of valid facts about it). Even worse, on a few occasions I used the information they’d provided (forgetting the source) and realized I was propagating the misinformation.

This is why I think spreading misinformation is incredibly harmful, it gets mistaken as valid info, and people use it to make decisions. Decisions made on the basis of things that aren’t true aren’t going to be very useful in achieving whatever we’re after.

Some people defend Rich Dad, Poor Dad saying that the book has major problems, but that there’s interesting motivational ideas about starting your own business (or whatever). I think there are real problems when you have to dig through a source of information and separate out the good and bad yourself. What if you get it wrong and lump in some bad info with the good, or dismiss good info with bad?

Thinking for yourself is important, but wading through a minefield of misinformation to try to find truths is a bad approach to learning. I already do this living my life! When I read a book, I’m counting on the author to have already separated out the good stuff for me. If he is unable (or can’t be bothered) to do so, why should I waste my time on his book?

How do you deal with people who try to feed you misinformation? How about when its a friend or a family member?

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Lessons Learned Blogging

This is a post with ideas about blogging that I’ve thought over the last (almost) year-and-a-half in the personal finance blogosphere. I don’t make any claims that these are the *best* ways to blog, and certainly don’t claim this is the *only* way to blog. Its what’s worked for me though (I won’t speak for Mike this time).

  • Post consistently: I really think there’s value in regular posts, ideally every weekday. Our justification for not posting on weekends is that traffic goes way down, so why write a post for days when most of our readers don’t visit? From the readers’ perspective, I think (hope) there’s a point in their day where they say “I wonder what’s up on Four Pillars today?”, I want to make sure there’s something there every time they think that and come to the site. I know from personal experience that it doesn’t take many times with no new content before you just forget to come back.
  • Be sincere: A few bloggers adopt personalities that clearly aren’t themselves. While Mr. Cheap is an exaggeration of some of my less endearing qualities (I annoyed a friend suggesting reusing coffee grinds recently), I think Mike & Mrs. Pillars can attest that I’m pretty similar on and off-line (I think I’m probably a bit nicer in person though). I think it would be EXHAUSTING to always write in a way that isn’t yourself, and I think readers pick up on it when you’re faking it. As Kurt Vonnegut suggests, sound like yourself.
  • Be humble: As bloggers we often can’t really claim we know what we’re talking about. A few of us are blogging about subjects we actually ARE experts in. The rest of us yammer on about things we’re still learning about ourselves. Its striking to me how few of us actually blog about what we were trained to do, or what we do for a living. This should probably be a blog about computer programming (since that’s what Mike and I have both done for most of our working lives). When someone doesn’t know what they’re talking about, then arrogantly condescends to their readers, it doesn’t come across as knowledgeable, it just comes across as arrogant. Luckily these types seem to burn out and disappear from the blog world. I think there’s real value in clearly expressing when you know you’re out past the point of what you really know. Feeding people misinformation is one of the greatest disservices you can do, so I think its really best to let people know when to take what you’re saying with a grain of salt.
  • Have a thick skin: I’m pretty thin-skinned, to the point one of my real-life friends worried about me when I started blogging. Luckily people have been nicer than I could have hoped for. There’s still the odd person who posts a nasty comment here or there, and blogging would stop being fun in a hurry if you let it get you down. I’m lucky that Mike is able to diplomatically tell the trolls to buzz off.
  • Say “Thank you” and make friends: Posting a quick “thanks for the link” (or linking to something you think is interesting) is one of the easiest things in the blogging world, and its also one of the most appreciated. Its always disappointing when a post doesn’t generate many comments, and its good to always show some love to frequent commentors too (I haven’t been as good at this recently as I should be – I love you guys! *kiss* *kiss*). Most blogging software lets you see when people link to you, and even if its a new blog with just a couple of posts, I’m tickled pink when people link to us (and try to always leave them a comment on their blog thanking them for doing so). Carnivals, commenting on other people’s blogs and taking part in networks are all very important activities that I’m horribly negligent at. Luckily Mike covers up my boorish behaviour.
  • Take opportunities: Sometimes great opportunities are offered to us, and it pays to say “yes”. I’ve asked people out for lunch who I’ve interacted with on-line, and had a number say “no thanks” (and seemed offended at the idea). Mike said “sure”, we met up in real life and shot the shit for a couple of hours. In turn, he suggested we merge the blogs, I said “sure”, and that’s turned out better than I could have ever hoped.
  • Make opportunities: Things are often not as hard as we think they are. Mike and I each suggested something to the other, it was accepted, and good things happened. I recently setup a book review & interview that I’m really pumped about. All it took was an e-mail to the author saying “want to do this?” and he did!
  • Humour can be a tough line to walk: I’m ironic more often then I should be . A number of commenters clearly don’t get it, which definitely implies a number of readers are misunderstanding me who never comment. I think its important to write such that you’re clearly understood, but I know Mike, a number of regular commenters and hopefully most regular readers clearly can pick out when I’m writing “tongue in cheek”. Some blogs go overboard trying to be funny and end up just being annoying (I probably do this too often myself). Blogs are less formal than traditional media: we don’t have to suck up to advertisers the same way a TV station would. This leads to less restraints on language, taboo subjects and humour, but things can become unappealing in a hurry when any of these things go overboard.
  • Consider consequences: Mike and I luckily get on the same page with most things, and both of us are realistic of what may result from our choices. We’ve discussed context links and both thought they’d just annoy readers (which is the last thing we want to do). We discussed the casino ads we run, and figured none of our readers would look twice at them, so that was an unintrusive way to make a bit of revenue (the people who buy those links from us aren’t interested in our readers, they just want to bump themselves higher in Google’s rankings). We’re also aware that we’re hurting out PageRank by helping them game Google’s system, but what the heck, a buck is a buck. We talked about putting a “buy us a beer / coffee” link in, but both felt it would be too much like begging (and again we worried about the effect that would have on our readership). We like the idea of TV / Radio / Newspapers where the audience can consume the content for pretty close to nothing, and the advertisers foot the bill. I’ve had conversations with people where they refuse to acknowledge the consequences of what might happen and will say “well, lets just try it”. It drives me nuts when you can see (and avoid) a problem, but someone refuses to do so.
  • Don’t worry too much about spelling and grammar: Occasionally someone will point out a typo or a bigger error you’ve made and you’ll feel bad. I think its good to try to get the right usage of there/their/they’re and its/it’s, but books, magazines and newspapers have people who’s full time job is catching and correcting errors. Don’t beat yourself up if you make the odd mistake, the most important thing is that people understand what you have to say.
  • Be modest: Closely related to “Be humble”, the primary idea behind this is don’t ever do something like a list of ideas telling other people how they should blog! How lame and arrogant would *THAT* be?